Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipts of the treasure island exchange on January 12

the warehouse receipts of the treasure island exchange reported that today, polypropylene and linear varieties rose across the board, of which ll0903 rose by the limit. The settlement prices of pp0904 and ll0904 were 6839 and 8010 yuan/ton respectively, up 141 and 273 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 1616 batches (8080 tons) were traded throughout the day, 48 fewer than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 2548 batches (12740 tons), 68 fewer than the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex2 monthly crude oil futures closed down $0.87 at $40.83 a barrel overnight. As of 16:00 on January 12, Beijing time, February crude oil futures fell $1.22 to $39.61. Ethylene monomer: FOB Korea reported $595.0/t, up $45/T, FOB Japan reported $595.0/t, up $45/T. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported US $585.0/ton, FOB Japan reported US $580.0/ton

polypropylene varieties:

the main pp0904 opened slightly higher in the morning with 6750, and went higher with shock, and the highest in the end was 6880; It began to fall back in the afternoon and dived after falling below the average price line at 14:30. The lowest price in the late afternoon was 6710 and closed at 6720

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP reported flat (US dollar/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer PP reported flat (US dollar/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP reported flat (euro/ton), Fas Houston homopolymer PP reported flat (US dollar/ton)

(2) domestic market: there are few mainstream quotations in the markets around Yanshan today, Sinopec's shipments are stable, and the market atmosphere is acceptable. Middlemen said that the weekend demand is general, and at present, it is mainly wait-and-see. The transaction in Tianjin PP market is general at weekends, and the quotation changes little. There are still not many local materials in Qingdao, and some businesses look for goods from Dalian and other places. It is said that T30S is still reported at about 7300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: PetroChina South China PP is priced and sold, and the price is stable today. The drawing T30S is reported at 7300 yuan/ton. Zhenhai Refining and chemical PP plant normally produces film material f280z and plans to switch to wire drawing T30S tomorrow. Maoming Petrochemical PP plant line 1 produces T30S and line 2 produces n-f280m

technical aspect (polypropylene continuous):

(1) price situation: the medium-term trend of shock decline, which is in the shock bottoming market in the short term; Today, it rose and fell

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: collect the meteor line. The trading volume was basically flat, and the order volume increased slightly

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the 5-day moving average turns from rising to leveling; On the 60 minute line, the moving average system turned into a long line, and closed slightly below the 10 unit moving average today. Reference pressure 6880, 7069, support 6580, 6465

(4) indicators: MACD (26,12,9) hovers around the zero axis, stranding above the zero axis on the 60 minute line; KD (9) therefore, new energy vehicles using plastic products can run farther. 3,3) the express line is flat in the overbought area, and a dead fork occurs in the overbought area on the 60 minute line

brief analysis and suggestions:

futures oil closed above $40/barrel overnight. Today's electronic trading was stable in the morning and plunged in the afternoon, which had a great impact on the trend of polypropylene warehouse receipts. The shortage of spot goods still has a certain supporting effect on the price, but the downstream demand problem is not still ignored. The main force of jubing rushed up today, but ended up high and fruitless, and dived at the end of the day. There are requirements for technical adjustment

linear varieties:

today, the main force 0904 opened slightly lower with 7800, fell slightly, and then was pulled up strongly, and then entered the strong sideways; In the afternoon, the trend of morning shock continued, and fell slightly in the late trading, and finally closed at 8000

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East LLDPE reported flat (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe LLDPE reported flat (euro/ton), Fas Houston LLDPE reported up $43/ton (USD/ton), FOB Middle East LLDPE reported 3. The screw should not protrude from the surface of the part (USD/ton)

(2) domestic market: due to the lack of bad news, futures opened higher on Monday. Traders around Yanshan were mainly on the sidelines, with few quotations. Some merchants linearly quoted 8600 yuan/ton for PetroChina

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: the quotation in the surrounding areas of Beijing linear weekend has little change. The old high pressure of Maoming Petrochemical plant was opened on the 10th, with production of 2426k, full density production of 7042 and high density production of hhm5502lw. Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE plant produces 7042 and 2001

technical aspect (linear continuous)

(1) price trend: the intermediate trend of volatile decline, short-term volatile rise, and continue to close up today

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out a male line with long shadow. Both quantities have been reduced

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system is arranged in a long line and continues to rise. On the 60 minute line, the moving average system is arranged in multiple heads. Reference pressure 8350, 8280, below support 77 the Ministry of industry and information PCI said that in January 2012, the Ministry of chemistry formulated the "1025" development plan for the new material industry 00, 7580

(4) indicators: on the daily line, MACD indicators continue to rise above the zero axis. On the 60 minute line, the MACD index leveled above the zero axis, and the KD index express oversold area went down

brief analysis and suggestions:

today's LLDPE warehouse receipts broke through the previous high, yet to be confirmed, standing at 8000 points. In the spot market, the linearity basically maintained the quotation of last Friday, and various varieties rose and fell slightly with the number of resources. There are not many stores near the Spring Festival. I suggest short-term operation. (personal view, for reference only)

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