Comments on chemical warehouse receipt of the hott

Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on April 1

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that methanol varieties closed up sharply today. The settlement price of me0907 was 2320 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 9753 batches (48765 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 1581 batches from the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 14546 batches (72730 tons), a decrease of 31 batches from the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

the main force 0907 opened today at yesterday's highest price of 2300. It rose after a slight dip of 2295, and fell slightly to 2343 under the pressure of profit closing. Then it basically sorted out above the average price line, fell slightly below the average price line at the end of the day, and finally closed at 2325

Fundamentals:

(1) external quotation: on March 31, CFR China in Asia closed up $3/ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed stable, FOB Rotterdam in Europe closed stable, and the spot price in the US Gulf fell 1 cent/gallon

(2) domestic spot: today, the quotation of domestic methanol manufacturers is mainly stable, and the early low quotation of CNOOC (7.87,0.19,2.47%) Jiantao and Yunnan Yunwei soared to about 2100 yuan/ton. In terms of market, the mainstream price in East China was temporarily stable at yuan/ton, the mainstream price in South China rose by 100 yuan/ton at the low end and fell by 20 yuan/ton at the high end, and the mainstream price in North China was temporarily stable at yuan/ton

(3) upstream dynamics:

it is reported that the test piece is in a drum shape after tightening. On August 31, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao port has continued to drop to 4.85 million tons. At the same time, the spot price of 5800 kcal Datong blended coal was stable at RMB/ton. An authoritative person of the coal industry association said that the short rebound in coal demand in March can be seen as "replenishing inventory". Since the supply and demand of coal in 2009 were variable across the country, the trend of downstream industries such as power and steel was not clear, and it was difficult to say that the upstream coal would pick up. NYMEX crude oil futures for may closed up $1.25 at $49.66 a barrel overnight, and closed at $48.79 a barrel at 15:00 today

(4) downstream dynamics:

in terms of dimethyl ether, under the influence of the steady rise in Shandong liquefied gas market today, yamadong Jiutai was listed today to temporarily stop falling and stabilize at 3100 yuan/ton, while the loading was about 3000 yuan/ton. Zhangjiagang Jiutai was listed today, rising slightly by 20 to 3120 yuan/ton, and the transaction was also pushed to about 3020 yuan/ton at the same time. It is reported that the manufacturer currently produces about 700 tons per day

technology can be described as a "Big Mac" (continuous methanol):

(1) price trend: the market rebounded in the medium term, and fluctuated by more than 100 points in the short term. After eight trading days, it made a breakthrough today, and the center of gravity increased significantly

(2) K-line shape and double volume: take out the small Yang line with shadow line, the trading volume increases, and the order volume decreases slightly

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: according to the daily chart, the moving average system is in the form of multi head divergence; On the 30 minute chart, the 5-unit moving average is slightly printed: micro printer printing + accounting machine printing. Short term reference support levels 2300 and 2245, pressure levels 2343 and 2360

(4) index tracking: on the daily chart, the two lines of MACD are in a multi head shape above the zero axis; KD overbought area stranding. On the 30 minute chart, MACD is flat above the zero axis in the form of multiple heads; KD overbought area will go down after a dead fork of more than 80

market analysis:

the main force opened at 2300 today in July, and then the upward attack broke through the upper edge of the recent box shock. According to the 30 minute chart of me0907, the price fell before rising to the previous high of 2360. Some bulls were cautious, and the first test of the upper edge of the box was completed after the end of the trading; At the same time, KD will go down after the dead fork in the overbought area. Tomorrow, there may be 320 front-line vibration finishing with spots, wrinkles, bubbles and adhesion on 2 to complete the index repair. (personal view, for reference only)

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