Comments on chemical warehouse receipt of the hott

Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on February 24

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that methanol varieties rose across the board today. The settlement price of me0905 was 1921 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 11582 batches (57910 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 2116 batches from the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 13099 batches (65495 tons), a decrease of 312 batches from the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

the main variety 0905 opened slightly lower in early trading at 1930, quickly rose to 1978 (close to the price limit of 1979) and fell due to resistance. The second upward attack was weak, so it fell violently; In the afternoon, it took advantage of the trend to explore the daily low, stopped falling and rebounded after 1862, rebounded to near yesterday's settlement in the late trading, and closed slightly higher to close at 1930

Fundamentals:

(1) external market: on February 23, CFR China in Asia closed down $4/ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed stable, FOB Rotterdam in Europe closed stable, and FOB Gulf in the United States closed stable

(2) domestic market: as of press time, the mainstream quotation of yuan/ton in East China has increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation of yuan/ton in South China has temporarily stabilized, Building a market-oriented, legalized and internationalized business environment for all kinds of market entities in North China -- an exclusive interview with xiaoyaqing, director of the State Administration of market supervision and administration, "ask for impetus and vitality from reform. The mainstream quotation is yuan/ton, and the high-end quotation is 50 yuan/ton.

(3) Manufacturers/upstream price dynamics:

today, the quotations of some domestic methanol manufacturers fell, and the early high-end prices of some manufacturers in Heilongjiang and Hebei made up for the decline. It is understood that the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao port is accelerating as some coal enterprises loosen their measures to limit production and protect prices, while the five major power enterprises still refuse to sign power coal purchase contracts. As of February 23, the storage of coal in Qinhuangdao Port reached 7.809 million tons, an increase of more than 2 million tons over the beginning of the year, which has reached the highest inventory record of 8million tons last year. Despite the downward pressure from the coal market price, Shenhua, a leading enterprise in the coal industry, still denied the rumors of the price reduction of contracted power coal. NYMEX crude oil futures for April closed down US $0.50 at US $38.44 per barrel overnight, and closed at US $38.07 per barrel at 15:00 today

(4) supply dynamics:

Jiantao Hebei Chemical methanol plant with an annual output of 100000 tons in phase I is gradually recovering, and the plant with an annual output of 100000 tons in phase II is shut down. At present, the supply of goods is tight, and no quotation has been issued. Shanxi Yuanping methanol plant with an annual output of 200000 tons has been shut down since September 2008, and the manufacturer plans to start up at the end of this month. Shanxi Yongji Zhongnong chemical's methanol plant with an annual output of 50000 tons will produce more urea in the near future. 4 The instrument adopts brushless motor and is mainly equipped with overload protection. It is expected to return to normal in the near future and is temporarily out of stock

after the end of technical activities (continuous methanol):

(1) price situation: the market showed a volatile trend in the medium term, and fell sharply after rising in the short term; Today's broad shock, intraday amplitude of more than 100 yuan, trading center of gravity rose slightly

(2) K-line shape and double volume: take out the cross line, the long and short are evenly matched, the order volume is reduced, and the transaction volume is large

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: according to the daily chart, the 5-day moving average continues to cross the 20 day moving average to form a dead fork; In the 30 minute chart, there is no obvious signal for the stranding of the averaging system. Short term reference support levels 1862 and 1800, pressure levels 1978 and 2000

(4) index tracking: on the daily chart, MACD shows a short position above the zero axis of the two lines; KD indicator's downward express line has slightly penetrated into the oversold area. On the 30 minute chart, MACD is bonded below the zero axis, and KD index is initially formed into a golden fork in the middle area

brief analysis and suggestions:

me0905 today, the sensor has high precision, daily wide range oscillation, large volume reduction and closing crosshairs, long and short signals are intertwined, and short lines are waiting for the message surface guidance. Month warehouse receipt me0907 intraday trend is still relatively strong, and the double volume continues to increase, which is worthy of attention. (personal view, for reference only)

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