Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

2022-09-23
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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipts of the treasure island Stock Exchange on December 3

the warehouse receipts of the treasure island stock exchange reported that today, polypropylene and linear varieties fell across the board. The settlement prices of pp0903 and ll0903 were 6452 and 7007 yuan/ton respectively, up -91 and -115 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 1821 batches (9105 tons) were traded throughout the day, 3 batches more than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 1602 batches (8010 tons), 4 batches less than the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex1 monthly crude oil futures closed down $2.32 at $46.96 a barrel overnight. As of 15:00 on December 3, Beijing time, January crude oil futures rose $0.58 to $47.54. Ethylene monomer: FOB South Korea reported $405.0/ton, FOB Japan reported $405.0/ton. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported $481.0/ton, FOB Japan reported $479.0/ton

polypropylene varieties:

main pp0903 is regularly coated with a thin layer of MoS2 (2 molybdenum sulfide) grease in the morning; Opened slightly higher at 6450, stopped falling and rebounded after the lowest 6360 on the day of the dip, and fell back when the highest hit 6650; The average price fell in the afternoon, and the shock weakened under its suppression, closing at 6400

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP was flat (US dollar/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer PP was flat (US dollar/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP was flat (euro/ton), and Fas Houston homopolymer PP was down $8/ton

(2) domestic market: in the PP market around Yanshan, under the condition of continuous price rise and sharp decline of crude oil, middlemen lack confidence in the future market and actively ship and cash out. The market is weak and the transaction is not good. Middlemen said that there were not many quotations, and most of them were based on a single discussion. At present, the local T30S is reported at about yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: Maoming Petrochemical PP plant line 1 was shut down for maintenance on December 1, and line 2 produced n-t30s. PetroChina Southwest PP is priced for sale. Today, the T30S price is increased by 200 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton. TIANLIAN PP is still under maintenance and is ready to start construction in March next year. Today, following the opening and direction of the control servo valve, the T30S is hung at 7100 yuan/ton. The listing price of Daqing Petrochemical PP increased by 100 yuan/ton, and that of T30S increased by 7280 yuan/ton

technical aspects (polypropylene and propylene link 2):

(1) price trend: medium level trend of shock decline, short-term wide range shock; Today, it was at yesterday's low level, and once rose and fell in the session

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out the small Yin line with long upper shadow line. The double volume has decreased compared with yesterday

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system is still in a long line, and the closing closes again below the 5-day moving average; On the 60 minute line, the 5-unit moving average crosses the 20 unit moving average to form a dead cross. Reference pressure 6650, 6888, support 6360, 6205

(4) indicators: MACD (26,12,9) is still under the zero axis, showing a long shape, and the 60 minute line is above the zero axis, showing a short shape; KD (9,3,3) hovered in the middle area, and entered the oversold area on the online double line for 60 minutes

brief analysis and suggestions:

oil futures hit a new low overnight. Affected by this, the shock of polypropylene is weakening today. Once high in the plate, but the pressure above is obvious; The trading volume has decreased compared with yesterday, but it is still at the third highest level of single day trading in the past two months. Recently, due to the tight spot resources, the warehouse receipt market and the surface printing of labels or films lack momentum to kill or fall. At present, the short-term risk increases, and it is advisable to operate with caution. The spot side focuses on the price adjustment dynamics of petrochemicals, and the technical side focuses on the support of the 10 day moving average

linear varieties:

today, the main force ll0903 opened high at the highest point of the day, 7100, and was shaken in the morning. At 9:09, it fell to the lowest point of the day, 6850. In the afternoon, it continued the morning shock trend, and finally closed at 7050

news surface:

(1) external market: during the CFR Far East ll exhibition, DPE was flat (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe LLDPE was flat (euro/ton), Fas Houston LLDPE was flat (USD/ton), and FOB Middle East LLDPE was flat (USD/ton)

(2) domestic market: Although the price rise wave of domestic petrochemicals is high, traders around Yanshan are worried about demand and dare not blindly raise their quotations. Some quotations today are lower than yesterday, and the transaction is not good. The linear/high-pressure transaction in Tianjin market is good today, and the low-pressure wire drawing transaction is general, with PetroChina 7042 reporting 8600 yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: Sinopec Beijing linear continues to be listed, and the mainstream of linear is reported to yuan/ton. Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE plant produces 7042 and 2001. Yangzi Petrochemical linear unit produces 7042. Maoming Petrochemical plant has old high pressure production, new high pressure production of 2426h and full density production of 7042

technical aspects (linear two)

(1) price trend: medium-term trend of shock decline, short-term shock consolidation. It closed up slightly today

(2) K line shape and double quantity: take out a hammer negative line. The transaction was greatly enlarged and the order volume increased

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system is arranged in multiple heads. On the 60 minute line, it rose again after crossing the 20 day moving average on the 5th. Reference pressure 7200, 7400, lower support 6650, 6900

(4) index: on the daily line, the MACD index continues to have a long pattern below the zero axis. KD index shows a dead cross near the overbought area. On the 60 minute line, the MACD index goes down above the zero axis

brief analysis and suggestions:

affected by the sharp and continuous decline of international crude oil, LLDPE warehouse orders opened higher today and then fluctuated lower. The spot market quotation basically maintained yesterday, but the overall resources are small, and many businesses believe that there is still a possibility of rise. It is expected that the downstream will slow down the pace of procurement, while traders are also cautious to increase inventory. It is suggested that more than one bag is safe, and the main thing is to wait and see. (personal view, for reference only)

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