Comments on chemical warehouse receipt of the hott

2022-09-22
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Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island exchange on October 29

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island exchange reported that methanol fell in a narrow range as a whole today. The settlement price of me0902 was 1978 yuan/ton, up -56 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 7954 batches (39770 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 4603 batches from the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 8830 batches (44150 tons), an increase of 21 batches from the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

the main 0902 varieties continued to fall sharply while doing breaking experiments today. After opening at the down limit price in the morning, it rushed to the up limit immediately, but was immediately suppressed by the seller and dived. There was a slight deadlock at the 2000 point integer level. The manufacturer should be equipped with the corresponding software control system, but finally fell, and then sorted out the weakness above the down limit board; Shortly after noon, it fell to the limit and remained lightly closed until the market closed in 1953

message side:

(1) external market: FOB US Gulf cents/gallon, FOB Rotterdam 250 5 euros/ton, down 2.5 euros/ton. CFR China USD/ton, CFR Southeast Asia USD/ton

(2) domestic market: as of press time, the mainstream quotation in East China is yuan/ton, the low end is down 20 yuan/ton, the high end is down 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation in South China is temporarily stable; The mainstream quotation in North China was yuan/ton, and the low-end price fell by 50 yuan/ton

(3) manufacturers/upstream dynamics:

today, the quotation of some domestic methanol manufacturers in Henan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Fujian and Shaanxi fell. Recently, there have been "three highs" in coal transit and power plant inventory in some coastal areas, that is, the coal inventory in some northern transit ports, southern unloading ports and power plants remains high. Qinhuangdao, as the wind vane of the coal market, has an inventory of 8million tons for six consecutive weeks. In addition, according to the statement at the end of September, the power plant inventory is basically more than 20 days. NYMEX crude oil November futures closed down $0.49 at $62.73 a barrel overnight

(4) supply dynamics:

at present, the shutdown of some methanol manufacturers in Shanxi has not been resumed, among which the supply of Fengxi, Jinfeng, Yongji Zhongnong, etc. is acceptable, but the production of some units has also been reduced under the current downturn. Shandong HongRi Akang methanol plant with an annual output of 100000 tons is still in shutdown status. In view of the current downturn, the start-up time is not clear. Hebei Tianbao chemical methanol plant has not been restored at present, and there is no supply, and the specific start-up time is not clear

technical aspect (continuous methanol):

(1) price trend: the market showed a medium-term downward trend, and today closed at a record low

(2) K-line shape and volume and price. Mr. Bert Bakker, the chief executive officer of Liansi group, said in the interview: today, the inverted T-shaped cross line was closed, the transaction was enlarged, and the order volume was slightly reduced. It is possible to continue to find the bottom in the short term

(3) moving average system (4,9,18), support pressure: from the daily chart, the moving average system is still in short position; On the 60 minute chart, the moving average system is short. There is no reference support level in the short term, and the pressure is 2306, 2450

(4) index: on the daily chart, MACD is in an interleaved state below the zero axis; KD index oversold areas cross downward. The report said that on the 60 minute chart, a dead cross was formed below the zero axis of MACD; There is no obvious signal in the oversold area of KD index. Overall, the indicators tend to be empty

styrene varieties:

latest developments in the spot market: the intraday quotation of East China styrene fell below 5000 yuan support. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is about 4900 yuan/ton, and the market transaction is still not much improved. The intraday decline in the Styrene Market in South China is difficult to change. At present, it is very obvious that there is a price in the market but there is no market. The continuously falling price has reduced the market confidence to the freezing point. The sporadic quotation is about 5400, but there is a lack of substantive transactions. (personal view, for reference only)

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